By Atuna.com
The prices of vegetable oils, found in canned tuna, are expected to stay around the current level for the next few months, according to J.P. Spierenburg, a trader at the Dutch United Oil Factories. The prices – which have declined by about 10% since the midsummer – already seem to be stabilizing after the release of yesterday’s USDA report on crop production, he says.
Currently, soybean oil is around USD 1183 per ton and sunflower oil is around USD 1220.
On Thursday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasted a larger soybean stock than previously expected. The government estimates that farmers will produce 2.86 billion bushels of soybean this fall, which is 9% higher than September’s projection. Still, this estimate is the country’s smallest in five years.
The forecast was boosted due to the late rainfall in the growing season, says Spierenburg. Prior to the rainfall, U.S. crops were experiencing a severe summer drought.
“The drought was quite heavy in the U.S. so the yields went down…no one knew what the influence of the late rains would be, but it was a little bit positive, so the yield was not as low as it was in the forecast,†he says.
Given the low harvest in the U.S., he does not see the prices changing much in the coming months. “It cannot go lower because it is more or less finished.â€
Instead, he expects the prices to drop a bit once the South American harvest occurs – if the “positive†forecast for the region holds true. He says it is still early to tell exactly, as the farmers are currently planting the seeds in the ground and the weather during the growing season can be unpredictable.
“If it comes out as it is forecasted at the moment, then you should expect that we will go a little bit lower. But not in the next few months as we have to live with the harvest out of the U.S. and that one is on the low side.â€